Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to electrify a Labour conference and to show Labour was falling out of love with its then leader. While not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase met with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.
In that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.
The Evolution in Position and Closed Issues
In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if polling evidence indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.
Pressure Building on Europe
However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. While Europe may not be the boiling pot of British politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen again.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.
And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains measured in low decimal points.
Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals
Rachel Reeves is one of those attempting to bypass long-standing interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people by which youths can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.
David Lammy has pondered publicly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.
Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. A proposal involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the following election platform, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.
Starmer's Deep-Seated Scepticism
Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea cautioning that rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.
Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.
- First, he believes any customs union agreement is now much harder as ministers are actively diverging from European rules across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
- Second, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has led British officials that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms with Britain than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
- Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from Europe.
An Alarming Document & Strategic Considerations
This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe faces cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It contains only one reference of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that the US government will intervene in our politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.
But, far from deciding that this makes America an undependable ally, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Leadership Speculation and The Ghost from the Past
All of which brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.
But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a clutch of senior ministers signaling they want to go further on Europe.
Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Clear Risk & A Prudent Memory
The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.
It would be prudent of him to recall the impact just a few words had on his career seven years ago. Potential pathways for a big offer on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.
